Aug 26, 2016

Summary of Stupidities 'to get rid of' to be Financially Safe

Hi Friend,

Here is a wonderful list of Stupidities 'to get rid of' from Mr.Morgan Housel, titled '77 Reasons You're Awful at Managing Money'.

Please note italicised matter in braces is my comment.
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  • You aced your SATs and went to an Ivy League school. You think this qualifies you to be a financial genius without realizing that the single most important skill in finance is control over your emotions, not control over a Greek formula.
  • The single largest expense you'll pay in life is interest. You'll spend more money on interest than food, vacations, cars, school, clothes, dinners out, and all forms of entertainment. You do this because you don't save enough and demand a lifestyle you can't actually afford. The future owns your income.
  • You think renting a home is throwing money away when for many it's one of the smartest financial decisions they can make.
  • You hate finance, think it's confusing, and don't want anything to do with it. You do, however, love money. You see no irony in this.
  • You think the stock market is too risky because it's volatile, without realizing that the biggest risk you face isn't volatility; It's not growing your assets by enough over the next several decades.
  • You're unable to realize that a 10% return for 20 years generates more money than a 20% return for 10 years. Time can be a more important factor than return when building wealth -- and it's the one thing you have control over.
  • You can't acknowledge the role luck plays when making the occasional successful investment. (Also true when worshiping investors who made one big call that happened to be right.) (Most real estate investments of ‘investing geniuses’  that we keep hearing about, fall in this category).
  • You suffer from the Dunnig-Kruger effect, lacking enough basic financial knowledge to even realize that you're making mistakes. People's lack of understanding about things like compound interest and inflation can lead them to believe they're making good financial decisions when in reality they're tripping over themselves with failure.
  • You seek advice from a doctor to manage your health, an accountant to do your taxes, a lawyer to manage your legal problems, a plumber to fix your plumbing, a contractor to build your house, a trainer to help you exercise, a dentist to fix your teeth, and a pilot to fly when you travel. You wouldn't consider doing it differently. Then, with no experience, you go about investing willy nilly, all by yourself.
  • To paraphrase Carl Richards, you ignore history, basing your actions on your own very limited experience.
  • You think financial news is published because it has useful information you need to know. In reality, it's published only because the publisher knows you'll read it.
  • You don't realize that the guy giving advice on TV doesn't know you, your circumstances, your goals, or your risk tolerance. He doesn't really care about you, either. He just wants to be seen on TV.
  • You work so hard trying to make money that you don't have time to think about, or plan, your finances. This is the equivalent to spending so much time buying exercise equipment that you have no time to exercise.
  • You spend lots of money on material stuff to impress other people without realizing those other people couldn't care less about you(which includes a house as well).
  • You have never been able to predict what the market will do next. This doesn't deter you from trying to predict what the market will do next.
  • You don't learn vicariously from other people's financial problems. By the time you get the hang of making smart money decisions, your life expectancy rounds to zero.
  • Your definition of "long term" is the time between now and the next bear market, whenever that is.
  • You're investing for the next 50 years but get stressed when the market has a bad day.
  • You think $1 million is a glamorously large amount money when it's what most people will need to cover their definition of a pretty mediocre retirement.
  • You associate all of your financial successes with skill and all of your financial failures with bad luck.
  • Rather than admitting and learning from your mistakes, you ignore them, bury them, make excuses for them, and blame them on others.
  • You are unshakably certain about things you know very little about
  • You think you're young, invincible, and don't need health insurance.
  • You're part of the roughly half of Americans who can't come up with $2,000 in 30 days for an emergency, even though you're also part of the roughly 100% of Americans who will need to come up with $2,000 in 30 days for an emergency at some point in your life.
  • You spent the last five years arguing why Keynesian/Austrian economists were all wrong (basically discussing rubbish, posing as if we are geniuses - all talk no investment). The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) spent the last five years rallying 177%
  • You think dollar-cost averaging is boring (Investing even when the market goes down) without realizing that the purpose of investing isn't to minimize boredom; it's to maximize returns.
  • You work in a stressful job in order to make enough money to have a stress-free life. You see no irony in this.
  • You let confirmation bias take control of your mind by only seeking out information from sources that agree with your pre-existing beliefs.
  • You take something as mind-numbingly complex as the global economy and try to distill it down into small, elegant sound bites.
  • You have a financial plan without realizing that life neither knows nor cares about your plan. Whatever your plan is today, reality will surely look far different tomorrow(be flexible in your planning as reality forces us to change often).
  • You think that not changing your opinion about markets, the economy, and your investments is somehow noble, when it's really just shutting your brain off to the reality that things are always changing.
  • You're unaware that the business models of the vast majority of financial companies rely on exploiting the fears, emotions, and lack of intelligence of its customers.
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Thank you.

Source:

Aug 23, 2016

The Three Kinds of Clients in Advisory

Hi Friend,

Investors can be broadly classified into 3 different categories.

1. Those who need the Ego Pampering:
  • Though this category of clients say they need an advisor, what they really need is a marketing guy (a sales man) who is good at pampering their Ego. 
  • They expect a Sales man to second what they think is right. The Sales man who can do this 'the best' gets maximum business. 
  • Social proof (also known as informational social influence, is a psychological phenomenon where people assume the actions of others in an attempt to reflect correct behavior for a given situation and is driven by the assumption that surrounding people possess more knowledge about the situation) is a common trait in this category. 
  • So, logic has little impact on this category of investors unless they see social proof for the same, which is unlikely in most cases. 
  • A genuine advisor, whose duty is to point out our 'thought flaws' and correct them with our help, is at a dis-advantage with this group.
  • Unfortunately most prospective investors fall in this category (of course to different degrees). 
  • The 'agent culture or the Wall Street Culture' - of keeping an investor always in control, even when he/she is wrong, for the fear of losing business - is prevalent due to this group.

2. Truth Seekers - Those who accept the truth and change accordingly:
  • Humility (the quality of having a modest or low view of one's importance) is a basic trait of this group.
  • Because they know what they don't know or because they accept the possibility that they may not be good in a particular field, they look for an advisor who compensates for this.
  • They appreciate hard work and honesty.
  • This is the category a genuine advisor looks forward to working with as this is the best category to add value with minimal friction.
  • Obviously, this category of clients is a minority. 
  • Given the limited supply of 'truth seekers', a genuine advisor hopes that some from the first category of clients can be turned in to this second category with patient effort, but the hope often proves futile.

3. Super-Egoists:
  • No genuine advisor would likes to take 'Panga'(trouble) with this kind, but as you know accidents happen
  • If anybody ever says to a client of this category that 'he/she is wrong' or 'not so wise in his thinking', one can be sure that the days are counted in the relationship.

The most important traits of a Great investor:

Here is what Mr.Michael J. Mauboussin, Wall Street Investment Strategist, Author, Professor has to say (please note Emphasising and comments in braces are mine)

  • Great investors don’t get sucked into the vortex of influence. 
  • This requires the trait of not caring what others think of you, which is not natural for humans (meaning we have to deliberately practice it).
  • Indeed, many successful investors have a skill that is very valuable in investing but not so valuable in life: a blatant disregard for the views of others (which the first category of investors are not suitable for as they require 'social proof') 
  • Success entails considering various points of view (which makes sure that the third category- the super-egoists, isn't suitable at all to be great investors) but ultimately shaping a thesis that is thoughtful and away from the consensus. 
  • The crowd is often right, but when it is wrong you need the psychological fortitude to go against the grain. This is much easier said than done, especially if it entails career risk (which is often the case). 

Please remember, when one doesn't feel any friction at all in a relationship with an advisor, he/she probably is a 'Sales Person' or one 'may be a first category of investor'.

It is almost impossible that a genuine advisor doesn't have friction with an investor at all, as his basic work (pointing out our thought flaws) hurts our Ego, more often than not.

Productive friction/Thought friction is an indicator that an advisor is doing his job.

Thank you.

Sources:


Aug 13, 2016

Diversification : How many Mutual Funds should I own ?

Hi Friend,

How many Mutual Funds are required to adequately diversify one’s actively managed Equity portfolio is a question that is not easy to answer for both investors as well as for advisors.

At the beginning of a relationship, if an advisor makes a client invest in just one fund, the client may want to ‘diversify’ in to ‘more’ number of funds. 

But, even after investing in four funds, it generally happens that a client still would ask for ‘more’.

An advisor can not be sure of what this ‘more’ means in exact number and it happens that the investors who always ask for ‘more’ do not clarify it either.

Guess this ‘more’ arises out of ‘fear’ and the ‘confusion’ created by various sources of information.

Some of the sources of confusion are,
    • Lack of clarity in most of the news articles , magazines etc., on whether they are talking about diversification in Stocks or Diversification in Mutual Funds.
    • Forgetting the basic fact that an Equity based mutual fund is already a diversified vehicle of stocks. One shouldn’t forget that generally every mutual fund has around 30 to 40 stocks or even more.

Here is what Mr.Phil Fisher have to say on the pitfalls of wrong interpretation of diversification,
  • Investors have been so oversold on diversification that fear of having too many eggs in one basket has caused them to put far too little into companies they thoroughly know and far too much in others about which they know nothing at all. 
  • It never seems to occur to them, much less to their advisors, that buying a company without having sufficient knowledge of it may be even more dangerous than having inadequate diversification.

How much diversification is required ?

The best way to answer this question would be Mr. Charlie Munger’s Technique of “Inversion”. i.e. One can get the optimal number of funds by answering, “What can not be construed as diversification in ‘Active Fund Management’ ?” 

As the number of funds increase in a portfolio, we may be investing in almost all the companies of the index / market that matter i.e. we may be buying the entire market .

But, if we buy the entire market how can we beat the market ?

The basic purpose of active management will be lost as the number of funds in a portfolio increases beyond a point .

What Great Investors and Theories have to say about the number of stocks required for optimal diversification may give us some clues. 

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According to the modern portfolio theory, you'd come very close to achieving optimal diversity after adding about the 20th stock to your portfolio”.


“The number of securities that should be owned to reduce portfolio risk is not great; as few as ten to fifteen holdings usually suffice.” - Seth Klarman

“Adequate though not excessive diversification (which he defined as between 10 and about 30 securities)” - Benjamin Graham
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Needless to say even just one “perfect” mutual fund would have more than the required amount of 10 to 30 stocks in an Ideal portfolio. 

As we can’t be sure of the the “perfectness” of a fund, having 3 to 4 funds in a portfolio, giving us the flexibility to invest across various market caps, to take advantage of tactical opportunities etc.,  should be a reasonable diversification. 

One should not forget that Three to Four funds would generally contain at least 60-100 unique companies.

To finish off,

Wide diversification, which necessarily includes investment in mediocre businesses, only guarantees ordinary results.” - Charlie Munger

Sources:

http://www.valueinvestingworld.com/2016/01/phil-fisher-on-diversification.html

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/01/051601.asp

https://25iq.com/2013/01/16/charlie-munger-on-investment-concentration-versus-diversification/

Thank you.

Aug 5, 2016

The Role of an Advisor

Hi Friend,

Advisory is a tough job for many reasons. Some of them are,
  • Intangible and hence the receiver may not appreciate its value fully
  • The results can be seen only over a period of time 
  • The success of advice depends also on the effectiveness with which it is implemented, which isn’t in the control of an advisor
  • Good advice, like many other good things, may be boring.
 
The following Extract from the semi-annual report for the year 2016 provided by JMX capital GMBH for the sub fund truffle, summarises the role of an advisor , 

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      • Since TGV Tuffle was fully invested shortly after its launch and there have been no significant changes within the portfolio, I am often asked what I am doing all day? 
      • What more is there to do when all shares are purchased, and all capital is invested ?
      • Generally speaking traditional standards of productivity don't apply to my work day.
      • In most occupations, the traditional definition of a productive workday can be measured by how much output was produced. 
      • A sales person sells products, a doctor treats patients, and a lawyer writes legal opinions.
      • In all these cases, even an outside observer can get a clear impression of how much work has been done in the respective profession. 
      • In my profession, however, nearly everything revolves around questioning the original hypotheses behind investment decisions and continuously collecting information that contests these theories.
      • For me, it is a good workday if I can dispel an investment idea of the past, or have found a creative way to pit one of my key assumptions against reality.
      • During one of his legendary general meetings Warren Buffett was asked whether his success need to be put in to perspective, since it is essentially based on only a few major investment decisions (which, however, could have been mistakes). 
      • Buffett replied that every day he is holding a share, he is making an active decision not to sell it.
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If you can get good at destroying your own wrong ideas, that is a great gift” - Charlie Munger

Precisely this is what an advisor’s role is for an investor, helping an investor destroy his / her own wrong ideas. 

Fund selection and other aspects form a minor role in a successful advisory.

Thank you.

Source: http://goo.gl/QOGECj

Aug 4, 2016

Minimalism : Life is easy. Why do we make it so hard ?

Hi Friend,

Whenever I talk to people on personal front, it seems, majority of them are not entirely happy with the state of things in their life.

It seems almost all of them are asking "Why am I always running without even having the time to live my life" ?

The probable reason could be, we may be spending a considerable part of our life on not so important and useless things.

Minimalism is a concept of identifying those things and throwing them out of our lives so that we can "Live our Lives better".

"The purpose of minimalism is to remove the things in your life that don't serve you, so that you can make room for the things that do. When you eliminate the excess, you'll gain more clarity about what you really need for a healthy, happy life " - Courtney Carver

Minimalism is not subtraction for the sake of subtraction. 

Minimalism is subtraction for the sake of focus.

Please watch this 15 minute TED Talk of a Thailand farmer that may change our lives to the better if understood properly.


Thank you,